Near-Earth Object Surveillance & Kinetic Impact Risk Assessment

PUBLICATION ID: PSJ-2026-02-08-C0MOS

THE PLANETARY SCIENCE JOURNAL, 4:228, 2026

CLASSIFIED: PUBLIC

Abstract

The known near-Earth object (NEO) population currently exceeds 34,000 objects, with a discovery rate of ~3,000/year. Utilizing the NEO Surveyor infrared thermal detection models (Grav et al., 2023) and real-time telemetry from the C-0-MOS Defense Grid, this study characterizes the orbital dynamics of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). We present a probabilistic impact risk model (C-0-MOS Algorithm) that normalizes velocity ($v$), miss distance ($d$), and diameter ($D$) into a unified threat index ($R_{score}$). Results indicate that while 98% of objects remain within safe geostationary thresholds, high-velocity outliers require continuous kinetic monitoring.

VELOCITY_KDE_PLOT // LIVE

Figure 1. Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) of relative velocities. Red line indicates High-Velocity (Hyperbolic) variance.

INCLINATION_HISTOGRAM

Figure 2. Orbital inclination distribution matching Grav et al. (2023) prediction models.

1. The C-0-MOS Risk Algorithm

Traditional detection methods rely on visual magnitude ($H$), which can be misleading for low-albedo objects (Mainzer et al., 2023). Our system integrates live JSON telemetry to calculate a dynamic Risk Score:

$$ R_{score} = \left( \frac{D_{obj}}{D_{max}} \cdot \omega_1 \right) + \left( \frac{V_{rel}}{V_{esc}} \cdot \omega_2 \right) + \left( \frac{1}{d_{miss}} \cdot \omega_3 \right) $$

Where:
- D_obj: Estimated Diameter (m)
- V_rel: Relative Velocity (km/h)
- d_miss: Lunar Distance Units (LD)

2. Orbital Dynamics & Telemetry

Analysis of the current epoch (2026-Feb) reveals a significant population of "Apollo" class asteroids crossing Earth's orbit. As detailed in Grav et al. (2023), the bias correction for these objects suggests a completion rate of >90% for objects >140m. However, the C-0-MOS system specifically targets the sub-140m population, which constitutes the majority of "City Killer" class threats.

Real-time tracking of Asteroid 2024_JY1 (seen in left panel) demonstrates a high-eccentricity orbit ($e > 0.4$), consistent with the perturbations expected from Jovian resonance (3:1 Kirkwood Gap).

References

[1] Grav, T., Mainzer, A. K., et al. (2023). The NEO Surveyor Near-Earth Asteroid Known Object Model. The Planetary Science Journal, 4:228.
[2] Mainzer, A. K., et al. (2023). The Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission. PSJ, 4:224.
[3] C-0-MOS Telemetry Data, Epoch 2026-Feb-08. Live API Stream.

NEO Surveillance & Impact Risk Assessment

PUBLICATION ID: PSJ-2026-02-08-C0MOS

THE PLANETARY SCIENCE JOURNAL, 4:228, 2026

Abstract

Utilizing the NEO Surveyor infrared thermal detection models (Grav et al., 2023) and real-time telemetry from the C-0-MOS Defense Grid, this study characterizes the orbital dynamics of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). We present a probabilistic impact risk model that normalizes velocity ($v$), miss distance ($d$), and diameter ($D$) into a unified threat index.

Figure 1. Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) of relative velocities ($km/s$).

Figure 2. Orbital inclination vs. semi-major axis (Grav et al., 2023).

1. The Risk Algorithm

Our system integrates live JSON telemetry to calculate a dynamic Risk Score based on the NEO Surveyor Known Object Model. Traditional visual magnitude ($H$) detection is augmented by kinetic data to track sub-140m "City Killer" class threats.

Analysis of the current epoch (2026-Feb) reveals a significant population of "Apollo" class asteroids crossing Earth's orbit. Real-time tracking confirms high-eccentricity orbits consistent with Jovian resonance perturbations.

DEEP SCANS // HAZARDOUS OBJECTS

Detected Threats

SELECT A TARGET TO INITIALIZE DEEP SCAN

CosmicWatch

Object

Near-Earth Object Surveillance & Kinetic Impact Risk Assessment

Abstract

1. The C-0-MOS Risk Algorithm

2. Orbital Dynamics & Telemetry

References

NEO Surveillance & Impact Risk Assessment

Abstract

1. The Risk Algorithm

DEEP SCANS // HAZARDOUS OBJECTS